Square roots and W

(Originally posted on November 19th 2009.)

These times are different and they express recovery in different ways. You have the traditional J curve which is unrealistic. A W is possible but the latest research indicates a square root. I read an analysis which implied this. One of our relationship managers described this as a square root recovery. I thought his description was nothing short of genius. I have always respected his opinion and have had some interesting debates with him. I have disagreed with him on the the timing of investments. However today I shared most of his views. He said that there was a choice of going out drinking with the boys and get depressed or get fit, enjoy life, find someone and be happy. Today he is happily married. I followed his advice. Maybe I will be happily married sooner than I expect. Like the markets; we may be already in November but January 2nd has not come yet.

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