Category Archives: Ashes

Authors or Analysts?

(Originally posted on July 21st 2009)

One of the best feelings I get is when the “experts” from the major financial institutions comes up with the same conclusion that I have after I have realised it.Yes it is narcissistic of me but that it is the flower of my birthday and therefore it is to be expected. The latest episode was last night when one of the sports commentators on Sky said “One small step for Flintoff, one big step for England.” Earlier in the day I wrote on my Facebook “One small step towards the Urn and one big step for England.” The ASX increased by .01% today. That .01% increase can be attributed to the applause the populace at Lords gave Ricky Ponting an applause when he admitted that they were outplayed. The FTSE on the other hand has increase by over 1%. The share price of all the sponsors of the English Cricket Team have increased since yesterday. The only sponsor of the Australians who have had their share price increased is 3G. However 3G is 50% owned by Vodafone. Now what would a normal Aussie bloke do if he knew that? Does the average Aussie cricket fan know that Fosters have sold the rights to brew Fosters in Europe to Scottish and Newcastle which is owned by Heineken? In Europe the beer associated with Australia is not Australian!! Everything is not what it appears to be. Pure transparency among equity funds and hedge fund does not, will not and should not exist. If transparency did exist then everyone from a 90 years old grandmother in Timbuktu to Wall Street would be buying the same things. If that would happen then there will be no money to be made. Efficient markets cannot exist. It is the risk and uncertainty that gives rise to opportunity. All creation stories and theories begins with Chaos. Since that is the case then who are we to go against the Gods?

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Filed under Ashes, ASX, Cricket, England, Flintoff, FTSE

Ashes Index

The Ashes season has started. Probably it was one of the most exciting first test match of an Ashes series.Australia won the first test match in 2005. The Australian index outperformed the FTSE by 2.36% starting from the Monday before the Test match to the next Monday. In 2006 the ASX outperformed by .19%. Australia won that match too. Last week the FTSE outperformed by 2.61%. England drew the match. However Australia missed a golden opportunity to win the match. If Jenson Button had to win the German Grand Prix instead of Mark Webber then I would guess that the the difference would have been in excess of 3.0%. Ricky Ponting was furious that England used time wasting tactics. At least Nathan Hauritz was honest enough to admit that Australia would have used the same tactics. Besides I am pretty confident that had the Aussies taken the last wicket and won the match then they would have been totally pompous about it. It is not that England breached the spirit of the game but the Aussies are just sore losers.

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Filed under Ashes, Cricket, England

Recovery of the Urn

Today is four years since the bombings in London. A lot has changed since then. However the Ashes is upon us again and it is less than 24 hours away.As in 2005 there is a good possibility that England will win this series. Someone on face book said that the chances of England winning the Ashes is as good as America having an economic recovery. I do not think that the recovery of America will start tomorrow and will be significantly better by the time the Ashes end. However what I do know is that America is on the path of recovery. The distressed funds cropping up is testament to this. Roger Federer created a record at Wimbledon over the weekend. He deserved it. However I have to admit that I did admire Roddick. I do not think he is a better player than Andy Murray or Roger Federer. However what he did was he studied his opponents, created a strategy and stuck to it. His plan was good enough to beat Murray and to take the finals to a five sets. The talent of Federer was better than the skill of Roddick combined with his plan. That match is an epitome of the financial market. A beautiful sunny day, a lush green carpet of grass for the most part. The baseline however nearly caused both players to slip at different times. Finally strategy is not good enough to win. You have to be talented.

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Filed under Ashes, Cricket, USA

Do what you want to but don’t get caught

The tube strike is on. Waiting for transportation is crazy. LI guess the strike is partially justified. Demanding that the employees that made mistakes be given their jobs back does not make sense. Asking for a rise in pay is acceptable. They are doing a much better job than the bankers. If they can get bonuses then why can’t the tube employees? Besides in my opinion the tube workers provide a more essential service. I should make it clear that I support giving of bonuses to people who perform well in the financial sector. However I think it should be based on a risk reward basis. Possibly more related to the Sortino ratio than Sharpe. The sledging of the Ashes has gone political. Gordon Ramsay called a leading Australian TV presenter a lesbian and “pig woman”. He also recommended that she use Simon Cowell’s Botox doctor. The Australian PM said “I think I can describe his remarks as reflecting a new form of low life. Good on Tracy Grimshaw for coming out and giving him a left uppercut.” Politicians should do what they do best. Let them continue making empty electoral promises and fleecing the tax payers money. I am not only referring to what has been happening in the UK. The rule in politics, finance and to a certain extent in life is”Do what you want to as long as you don’t get caught.” If you do get caught then you have to be ready to face the repercussions. These don’t only hurt the person who caused the mistake and cheated but also other people around. This should be a lesson that we have to learn from the financial crisis and the current political situation in the United Kingdom. I do not know whether the head of Gordon Brown will role. However I am sure that the public has lost faith in the political leaders.

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Filed under Ashes, Indices, Politics, Ratios, TFL, United Kingdom

June Market Outlook 

(Originally posted on June 1st 2009)

A new month and the sun is shining brightly. The markets have been boosted by the news that the Chinese manufacturing markets have grown.However I am extremely sceptical when the markets increase or decrease on news of the mining, financial and Chinese sectors. This has also boosted the commodity prices which is of no surprise. Tomorrow will tell whether the news is actually positive or not.

GM is to file for bankruptcy today and is expected to emerge from it in 60-90 days. Will it rise like the mythical Phoenix from the ashes?

The countdown to the Ashes has begun. Historically the country that is expected to win the Ashes and wins the Ashes will increase. October 2008 is a good date to start as Australia played India in India and that was followed by England playing India in India. The FTSE futures are lagging the ASK by 1.73%. However the FTSE has increased at a faster rate than the ASX since England comprehensively beat West Indies in the Wisden Trophy. The performance of the two countries in the upcoming T20 cricket world cup will start to determine whether England or Australia will win the Ashes and consequently which market will do well. The person who will make a difference in the recovery of the UK market could be Andrew Flintoff. My eyes will be on Sophia Gardens in Cardiff on July the 8th where History will be made as it will become the 100th ground to host a test match since Cricket began.

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Filed under Ashes, China, Cricket, Flintoff, Market Outlook