I love alternate indices. RAFI which can be invested through PowerShares is probably my favourite investable index. The other index I really like is the Christmas Price Index. I had written a post on the following topics
- Religion-based Indices
- Condoms and Chocolates
- Analysis Test Series England vs. South Africa
I am still in the process of tweaking my cricket index. The common assumption in all this is my strong belief that the methodology used to measure certain indices is not completely accurate and some like the ICC cricket ranking is completely wrong. One decision I really liked was a recommendation to buy the shares of Apple when the news that Steve Jobs had cancer broke out. Yes, I did feel sad that Steve Jobs had cancer but I absolutely was furious at the people who thought that Apple would collapse because Steve Jobs would no longer be involved and would die. Today I feel the same way about the negative ratings given by analysts about Apple. The good thing though is that the fall in the share price of Apple is a good opportunity to buy it. Apple is an innovative company and will continue to do so. Everyone initially predicted that the cost of the iPhone X would under perform the iPhone 8 and would eat into the profits of Apple. Analysts more often than not get their calls wrong. Does it really matter if a company distributes less dividend than analysts expected? The important thing is that Apple is a good company. I read an interesting astrological article on the numerology analysis of certain tech companies. I am not a great believer in astrology or horoscopes. I do consider that there is a certain amount of science in numbers. It does not matter whether it appears as numerology or the significance of numbers in various religious texts. This post on the thirteen tribes of Israel is extremely good. There is a logic in Shmita. Apple will always be an attractive company to buy into. Buying it when the share price is down is a bigger bonus.
Filed under Apple, Business, Christianity, Cricket, ETF, Healthcare, Indices, Investments, Islam, Leaders, Market Outlook, Market Timing, religion, Test matches
(Originally posted on March 8th, 2010)
Durex in one of their studies just after the financial crisis reported that their sales had gone done and the average number of times people had sex reduced significantly. Around the same time, there was a report stating that the sales of chocolates had gone up. I told my friend then that a good sign that the world was in recession was when the sales of condoms decrease and that of chocolates go up. I view this as a sign of nervousness. The next step would be that the sales of condoms increases while the sale of chocolates begins to stabilise (rather than stagnate) This is a sign that the economy is improving. Then the final stage is when the sales of condoms increase at a significantly higher rate than that of chocolates. The sale of chocolates may actually decrease during this period. This I would equate with the economy being really good. People feel good about themselves. They feel happier. They go out more. Chocolate sales decrease because people no longer depend on it as a cure for depression. They avoid it so that they can get fit and look sexy again. I do not have any research yet to back my theory but I may be able to do it if I spend a few hours on Bloomberg.
If I can empirically prove my theory then I think this will be a better index than the Big Mac or iPhone because the number of people having sex and thereby using condoms is higher than people consuming either the Big Mac or the iPhone. The same with chocolates. The alternatives to both of these are limited. It is possible to make this index more accurate by calling it ” The Contraceptives and Confectionary Index (CONCON)” However that sounds too boring and not as exciting and naughty as “The Chocolate and Condom Index (CHOCO). Give me naughty and nice any day over formal and boring.
(Originally posted on June 2nd 2009)
Emotions play an important role in the world of finance.Clinical data rose 7.1% because their flagship antidepressant will not reduce a person’s sex drive. You know something is wrong with the markets when there is a drop in the sale of condoms but an increase in the consumption of chocolate. Investments are similar to relationships. You have those that want to make a quick buck. They are the “Wham Bam, thank you Ma’am” kind. You have those people who want to test and try the waters before making a commitment. You have the people that bereft of reason or logic bail out at the first sign of trouble. You have the people that are willing to be patient and wait. I believe that the last has the best long term return. However the risk is that you may end up waiting for too long and lose everything. At some point an assessment should be made whether a relationship or an investment is going in the direction you want it to grow. If it is not then it will be best to let go and take whatever losses/gains you have recieved. The ideal scenario though is to be patient, get into the right investment that not only provides short term dividend gains but also long term capital growth. This sadly is not as easy to achieve or find in investments or relationships.