I really feel hesitant in setting up this team. However I have to back up my numbers and go with what I have. The problem I had with Dream XI is the seven player cap per team. I had a problem with choosing two wicket keepers too. The main problem though is the pitch. I have no idea what side will they pick. It will be interesting though to see if they will change their side to suit their new home pitch or will they be able to get the grounds men at Pune to make a pitch closer to the one In Chennai.
Filed under Blog, Chennai Super Kings, Cricbuzz, Cricket, Fantasy Cricket, India, Indian Premier League, Indices, IPL, Rajasthan Royals, T20, Twenty20, Vivo Indian Premier league
It has taken 13 matches for a significant shuffle of the Playing XI. This is my analysis after Week one.
Based on the conditions I have set in my index this is the new result.
Rahul, Dhawan and Sampson are sitting nicely in the top three. AB De Villiers is precariously standing at four. I was tempted to drop him and bring in Naraine to open with Rahul. Dhawan and Sampson would move one place lower. Nitesh Rana has forced himself into the side. Surprisingly it is the uncanny knack of getting very important wickets at the right time that has caused this. I have placed him at five and put Hardik Pandya at six. However, if De Villiers does not perform well then I may end up dropping De Villiers and putting Rana at four and Hardik at five. I dropped Sam Billings and brought in Shakib Al Hasan. Getting Shakib in meant that I had to drop Markande. I believe the spin department is covered by Ashwin, Hasan and Rana. I have dropped Woakes and brought in Trent Boult. I have dropped Umesh Yadav and brought in Siddarth Kaul instead. These changes have strengthened the batting and have given more bowling options. I expect this list to change again.
I would really like to hear your views on this especially if you have a different View of the playing XI.
Filed under Blog, Chennai Super Kings, Cricbuzz, Cricket, Delhi Daredevils, India, Indian Premier League, Indices, IPL, Kings XI Punjab, Kolkata Knight Riders, Mumbai Indians, Rajasthan Royals, Royal Challengers Bangalore, Simon Doull, Sunrisers Hyderabad, T20, Twenty20, Vivo Indian Premier league
This post has been a long time coming after my first IPL Playing XI. However going forward this should become more frequent. As a reminder below are the criteria that I use in building my team.
- The team will have four International players.
- There will be a minimum of one spinner.
- The wicketkeeper will be a regular keeper for their team.
- The captain of the team will be one of the captains of the team.
- As much as possible the team will be playing at their regular positions.
Based on the above conditions my Index churned out the following team.
This is slightly different to the IPL XI put up by Simon Doull. His team is below.
The top four is a no-brainer. They clearly are the best people for those slots. Kishan was a contender for number 3 and the wicketkeeper bu Rahul and Samson can keep and their batting after week one is better than Nair. I expected Shane Watson to open but the sheer destructiveness of Rahul and Dhawan has pushed him off the opening slot. He is the third best foreign bowler. Despite this, he does not seem to slot anywhere else. Sunil Naraine was another contender for the opening slot. However, his hit out or get out attitude was too risky to warrant a place. I do not think there can be any arguments about three and four.
The Pandya brothers, Sam Billings and Karun Nair were fighting it out for five and six. I decided to go with Hardik and not Krunal because I needed a fast bowler. There were also better spinners that could be played. I decided to play Billings at six because he has the ability to change a game.
I had to pick Andre Russell. He is a good finisher. I see Bravo and Russell as having similar roles. I picked Russell because so far he has been better especially at bowling.
My first spinner and Captain of the team is Ashwin. I think this is the main difference between my list and that of Doull. The obvious captain from his list would be Devilliers. It is important to me that the captain is chosen from one of the eight or any other captain that may get chosen in the future. Ashwin has bowled well and he is able to make the batting go deeper. I strongly believe that Ashwin and Williamson have used their resources the best.
Umesh Yadav is the best fast bowler so far. Markande is the best spinner. The slot for the final fast bowler and a foreign player was between Chris Woakes and Mustafizur Rahman. I decided to go in for Woakes because he would strengthen the batting line up. He may be more expensive than Rahman but I do believe he is a better bowler and wicket taker than Rahman.
If you have a different view then I would really like to know.
Filed under Chennai Super Kings, Cricbuzz, Cricket, Delhi Daredevils, England, India, Indian Premier League, Indices, IPL, Kings XI Punjab, Kolkata Knight Riders, Mumbai Indians, Royal Challengers Bangalore, Simon Doull, Sunrisers Hyderabad, T20, Twenty20, Vivo Indian Premier league
This match fascinated me. The reason was the Duckworth Lewis Stern method (D/L) came into play. Rajasthan scored 153/5 off 17.5 overs. This equated to Delhi needing 70 runs off six overs. My index showed that the performance of RR was nearly three times better than Delhi. If I am not mistaken the net run rate for RR would have increased by 1.67 because of the win. This is 14.3% of the run rate of RR after accounting for D/L. I examined my assumptions and calculations after the result and found nothing that indicated that this difference was an anomaly or an existence of a bias against teams batting second. Looking at purely the batting points; the team batting second will get lower base points than the first team but they are sufficient checks to ensure that they will be able to score more points despite this.
Delhi just succumbed to the pressure. Munro getting run out without playing a ball had a huge impact. Maxwell and Pant did not contribute to the cause either. They were not able to get the required run rate from any bowler apart from Jaydev. The fate of the game seemed to have been decided as soon as the runout happened. Everything else was just a formality from that point onwards.
Rajasthan Royals and Delhi have huge problems to iron out. Munro is the weakest link in the team. To have that in the form of an opener is even worse. DD needs Munro to score, He is not like Naraine where any run by Naraine for KKR is a bonus. Morris has to start bowling better. For Rajasthan Royals, the biggest elephant in the room is Ben Stokes. His performance so far has not justified his price tag. Both these teams have to improve if they would like to get into the playoffs,
Filed under Blog, Cricket, Delhi Daredevils, India, Indian Premier League, Indices, IPL, Kolkata Knight Riders, Rajasthan Royals, T20, Twenty20, Vivo Indian Premier league
This is the playing XI based on my index. The parameters I have used are as follows
- The team will have four International players.
- There will be a minimum of one spinner.
- The wicket keeper will be a regular keeper for their team.
- The captain of the team will be one of the captains of the team.
This list will be updated after the last game of each day. The comments will change based on the team.
Openers: Ambati Rayudu played well at the Top of the order. Shane Watson is very comfortable opening the innings. Having him on the team and opening makes the team flexible because Watson fulfils the role of the foreign player, all-rounder and opener.
Wicket Keeper: Having Ishan Kishan bat at three is a blessing. The best place for a keeper in ODI and T20 is either in the top three or as a finisher. You have to look at Adam Gilchrist, Brendon McCullum, AB De Villiers and Quinton De Kock as examples. A premium has been paid for wicket keepers this season. The restriction on the number of foreign players makes Indian keepers very valuable. The keeper with the best batting record will get the slot.
Bowlers: The quality of fast bowlers gave me the freedom to choose two specialist spinners and Wood. However I am not sure how long these bowlers will be able to keep their places. I think Markande will continue to be there. Imran Tahir may get replaced by Rashid Khan. Mark Wood will have a hard time keeping his place.
Foreign Players: I have gone in for Shane Watson, Dwayne Bravo, Mark Wood and Imran Tahir. It may be difficult for Watson to be replaced. The rest are up for grabs. Shane Watson and Dwayne Bravo made a huge impact in the game. I expected more from Imran Tahir and Mark Wood.
The general consensus is that this year’s avatar of the Indian Premier League would be the most closely fought so far. All the teams bought players to create a well-balanced side. Big names did not matter. The number of years a person spent in the team, their seniority or even if they were a captain had no bearing. If the first game is anything to go by then we are set for a great competition.
The loss of early wickets followed by a good recovery by Ishan Kishan, Suryakumar Yadav and Krunal Pandya. The icing on the cake was the bowling of Dwayne Bravo in the last over. There was the last ball injury of Hardik Pandya too.
Chennai Super Kings started well. Then they had an absolute brain freeze in the middle order. Mayank Markande and Hardik Pandya bowled beautifully. I am looking forward to seeing more of Markande. Dwayne Bravo came in and brought CSK within touching distance of victory before he got out. Seven runs needed off six balls. They were nine down. Kedar Jadhav who had retired hurt earlier came back to bat. He did not score anything in the first three balls but then followed it with a six and four. CSK won by one wicket with one ball to spare. Joy Bhattacharya who was the former team director of Kolkata Knight Riders compared CSK to The Expendables at the show on Cricbuzz. It was so refreshing to hear their commentary.
My index indicates that Mumbai Indians outperformed Chennai Super Kings in each and every area. The difference between the two sides was clearly Bravo. His score was 50% more than the next highest player who was Krunal Pandya. Hardin Pandya just edged past Markande as the best bowler.
At the end of the day the best all-round performance by an individual in a team with nothing to lose and who had to prove their critics wrong deservedly won.
I have been developing my cricket index and I am happy with the tweaks I made. I have decided to have a soft run of the index with the Indian Premier League before I run it starting with the test match between Ireland and Pakistan followed by the Pakistan tour of England. Test, ODI and T20 will have different weights for the same factors.
My methodology is essentially to treat a team as a portfolio with each player an investment. The value of the team is the total of the individual performance of the players. I am curious about the results of the soft run. There cannot be a better baptism of fire for my index than the Indian Premier League. The main reason I started this project is that I believe that the ranking that is given by the ICC has little relevance to the actual performance of the team.
I believe I have either eliminated or reduced the biases that indices have especially cricket statistics.
There is a big difference between betting and investing. Investing in inverse ETF’s equates to betting. This article talks about the demise of XIV. People investing in products such as XIV should be given a lobotomy sponsored by the NHS. This is starting to bring back memories of 2008. The culprit was Hedge Funds then. Today it is ETF’s. That time one person I spoke to that worked for a bank that was heavily marketing Hedge Funds admitted that they did not read the fine print and did not know about gating. Another person told me that he was told hedge funds would never lose money. I wonder what that person’s view would be on ETF’s today. I am not a betting man but if I was then I would say that he would cease investing in ETF’s for the next one year. I would be telling him to keep his wallet out.
The active versus passive debate has been skinned so many times that there is nothing left to skin. The answer is that there is a place for both. However, in neither should there be a place for inverse ETF’s. There is nothing wrong with shorting stocks or ETF’s. You cannot crucify the undertaker for making money when people die. Investing in inverse ETF’s is like injecting yourself with a lethal substance hoping that you will make money off the insurance. The reality though is that action of your will probably leave your health beyond repair and cause heartbreak to the ones closest to you.
Except for two people; everyone else I know who passed through the gates of Credit Suisse has been glorified cold calling salespeople. Their structured products are so beautifully created that the client will not even realise that the only people making money are the banks themselves. Of those two people, one died and the other is a gem of a person who is thankfully working for another institution. I have told him that leaving Credit Suisse was the best thing that he did. It has been some time since I spoke to him. Maybe I should now.
Filed under Banking, Blog, Business, Compliance, ETF, Family Office, hedge funds, Indices, Investments, Market Outlook, Market Timing, Private Banking
Filed under Blog, Business, Compliance, ETF, Indices, Investments, Market Outlook, Market Timing, Private Banking, Regulations, Tax Avoidance, Vanguard
I love alternate indices. RAFI which can be invested through PowerShares is probably my favourite investable index. The other index I really like is the Christmas Price Index. I had written a post on the following topics
- Religion-based Indices
- Condoms and Chocolates
- Analysis Test Series England vs. South Africa
I am still in the process of tweaking my cricket index. The common assumption in all this is my strong belief that the methodology used to measure certain indices is not completely accurate and some like the ICC cricket ranking is completely wrong. One decision I really liked was a recommendation to buy the shares of Apple when the news that Steve Jobs had cancer broke out. Yes, I did feel sad that Steve Jobs had cancer but I absolutely was furious at the people who thought that Apple would collapse because Steve Jobs would no longer be involved and would die. Today I feel the same way about the negative ratings given by analysts about Apple. The good thing though is that the fall in the share price of Apple is a good opportunity to buy it. Apple is an innovative company and will continue to do so. Everyone initially predicted that the cost of the iPhone X would under perform the iPhone 8 and would eat into the profits of Apple. Analysts more often than not get their calls wrong. Does it really matter if a company distributes less dividend than analysts expected? The important thing is that Apple is a good company. I read an interesting astrological article on the numerology analysis of certain tech companies. I am not a great believer in astrology or horoscopes. I do consider that there is a certain amount of science in numbers. It does not matter whether it appears as numerology or the significance of numbers in various religious texts. This post on the thirteen tribes of Israel is extremely good. There is a logic in Shmita. Apple will always be an attractive company to buy into. Buying it when the share price is down is a bigger bonus.
Filed under Apple, Business, Christianity, Cricket, ETF, Healthcare, Indices, Investments, Islam, Leaders, Market Outlook, Market Timing, religion, Test matches